Political Science Experts Are Frothing at the Mouth: The Korean Conflict Takes Center Stage

Political Science Experts Are Frothing at the Mouth:  The Korean Conflict Takes Center Stage

It has been the opinion of the Seoul Gyopo Guide that war on the Korean peninsula was, is, and will be highly unlikely.  The bottom line is that Korea isn't the appropriate forum for a war, given South Korea's position in the world economy:  it is the U.S.' 7th largest trade partner, and China relies on South Korea for the technology transfer necessary in a large number of industries in order to continue the economic development of the world's most populous nation.  Nevertheless, it is still a fact that anything can happen, and this post examines some of those scenarios.

Is this China's handiwork?
Although this is unlikely, it has been suggested by some that China is behind the North Korean provocations.  If in fact this were the case, then the chance that this is actually a precursor to an all-out military conflict drops to nearly zero.  The reason?  China relies on South Korea in two ways.  First, China is a large exporter of consumer goods to South Korea.  The products range from agricultural products, seafood products, to everyday goods.  Second, Korean companies are enormous investors in China.  If you go to Beijing, you will see that all of the largest conglomerates (e.g. Samsung, LG, SK) have satellite headquarters there.  Hyundai Motors has joint ventures in China, where Chinese companies are "learning" from their Korean counterparts.  In short, the idea that China would support a military conflict would jeopardize, in part, Chinese economic development.  While the idea that the Chinese military is provoking skirmishes throughout the region in order to flex its muscles may be true, the Seoul Gyopo Guide believes that these priorities are subordinate to the importance of economic development.  In November 30th's UK newspapers The Financial Times and The Guardian, it has been reported via Wikileaks that the PRC has been frustrated with North Korea, and not in collaboration with it.

Does the North Korean Military Approve of Kim Jong-Un? 
It is well-known that military conflicts have occurred throughout history when the parties misunderstand the rules of engagement.  Now, rules of engagement means all of the different levels of engagement, i.e. political, economic and military.  One could postulate that as the transition of power in North Korea occurs, that some party, like the North Korean military, could choose to take matters into its own hands, and ignite a military conflict.  This is the one scenario which could actually be realized and must be closely monitored.  Surely, leaders of all parties are aware of global history, and are watching this transition of power carefully.  A great deal of resources have been used by NATO during the Cold War in order to prevent an "accidental war" resulting either from misunderstanding at any level.  The reason?  During the Cuban Missile Crisis and subsequent release of documents from the Kremlin, it is clear to us now that the world was much closer to the brink of a catastrophe than originally thought.  That history does not repeat itself must be the highest priority on the Korean peninsula.

Greater Leverage During Negotiations?  Most Probably.
There were supposed to be new negotiations amongst parties regarding the North Korean nuclear weapons program.   At the same time, a new nuclear facility in North Korea has been revealed.  To make each of these matters worse, there is no sign of respite from the seemingly endless economic decline of North Korea.  The bottom line is that North Korea needs more leverage when sitting at a negotiation table.  With little else to offer, North Korea has had almost no other choice than to use provocation in order to wrench concessions from South Korea and the U.S.  Its economy needs help, and needs it 20 years ago.  Knowing that South Korea has too much to lose should there be a war, North Korea can squeeze aid and other concessions.  As long as the North Korean nuclear program does not include the sale of sensitive nuclear technology to others, then it is political reality that at this point, there is little that can be done to dissuade North Korea from this path, given its dire economic needs.  The North Korean ideological bluster and other manouvers?  Most probably a smokescreen to increase its leverage to receive financial assistance, while maintaining its public stance to the world, and perhaps most importantly, its kool-aid drunken citizens.

But Still, Anything Can Happen...
While the Seoul Gyopo Guide continues to dismiss the ideas that war is anything other than a very low-probability event, it is true that anything can happen.  It can happen by error.  It can happen by miscalculation.  It can happen even if the best intentions exist.  So unfortunately, all parties will need to use financial and political resources that could be otherwise deployed.  Given the economic and social problems that originally existed, and remain, that may be the largest price being paid at the moment (aside from the 2 South Koreans that were part of the South Korean Navy, and the innocents on Yeonpyong Island).  The Seoul Gyopo Guide mourns their senseless loss.

영어 Slang of the Day #1: What is an "Ugly American?"

영어 Slang of the Day #1:  What is an "Ugly American?"

The term "ugly American" is meant as an insult.  It is used by Americans and non-Americans alike.  It refers to something that points out that Americans are ignorant regarding the rest of the world.  Some of that may be because Americans are poorly educated, and some of that may be because Americans believe that the U.S. is the only important nation in the world, and is disrespectful of other nations, their habits and their customs. 

Thanks to YouTube, you can easily find examples.
Poorly-educated ugly American:  This is one of YouTube's most famous videos.  It has been watched more than 47,000,000 times!  This is from a Miss Teen USA beauty pageant, and the contestant, Miss South Carolina, barely makes any sense as she used incorrect facts along with incorrect grammar the entire time.

Sarah Palin.   The ex-governor of Alaska, and former vice presidential candidate, has mistakenly referred to North Korea as a U.S. ally.  Now, I would like to make a few excuses on her behalf, but it is difficult.  This occurred a few days ago, during an interview about the most recent military clash.

While it is true that the term "ugly American" may be overdone, there are reasons that the term exists, and thanks to the internet, there is evidence regarding why the term exists for all to see.  Now, remember that there are approximately 310,000,000 people in the U.S., so to choose a couple examples may be a bit unfair.

영어 Hint of the Day #25: Buy vs acquire. Trickier than it seems

영어 Hint of the Day #25: Buy vs acquire.  Trickier than it seems

The other day on http://www.twitter.com/, I saw a question and responded to it.  The question was, "What is the difference between buy and acquire?"

Answer:
You can buy something with money or in a barter/trade.
You can acquire something in the same way, but in addition, you can acquire something abstract.  You cannot buy something that is abstract (like wisdom).

Examples:
(o)  I am going to buy a new mobile phone for 500,000 won.
(o)  I am going to acquire a new mobile phone.
(o)  I have acquired wisdom through my hard work and dedication.
(x)  I have bought wisdom through my hard work and dedication.

Korea's Embarrassing Behavior Regarding the KEB Sale is Now Finally Over

Today, Reuters reported that Hana Bank, with potential financial backing from Goldman Sachs, Carlyle Group, and KKR, will purchase KEB from the the U.S.-based private equity firm Lone Star.  This potentially removes the black eye that has scarred Korea's reputation on the global financial stage.

The positive?  The courts ultimately used proper law and economics principles to uphold the lawful sale.  It was refreshing to see that the Korean legal system actually used financial principles in denying the appeals to the eventual sale of KEB to Lone Star.  As The Lost Seoul has stated here, the fact is that there were NO other buyers for KEB's assets at that time.  As a result, the concept of "fair value," especially when a company is under extreme financial distress, was almost impossible to ascertain. It doesn't really matter if you believe that your used car is worth $5000 if the only willing buyer is willing to pay $2000.  The "fair price" is...$2000.  For the appeal to suggest that there was manipulation of what the "fair price" was is totally irrelevant.  The Korean legal system has upheld this basic economic principle. 

The negative?  This entire process exposed the relative infantile nature of Korean corporate and societal behavior to the world.  If KEB failed in 2005, after KEB had been sold to a foreign buyer, would Lone Star have a case if it tried to negate the sale after the fact?  No.  In the U.S., private equity firms tried to buy very large stakes in Washington Mutual during the financial crisis.  There was no public uproar which sympathized with the buyers.  It is especially the case after the deal had been completed, and approved by governmental officials.  If Korea wishes to jon the first world at the level equivalent to the world-class products that it produces, then it must follow internationally-accepted (and logical) rules of international trade.  Financial transactions are different than when a person buys a new car.  In that case, the car may have production defects.  Those defects are guaranteed to be fixed by the manufacturer.  However, the price of the car is up to the buyer to determine, i.e. if the buyer believes the car is too expensive, he/she buys a different model.  In the future, Korean governmental officials must make sure that it has the appropriate measures to approve financial transactions, and the government must uphold its own decisions, even if politically unpopular.  Not doing so has made Korea look silly on the international stage.  Let's hope that this does not occur in the future as Korea continues its march to the upper echelon of the global economy.